Forecast iss. 1800UT Sun 16 - SW 4 or 5 occ 6 in South. Slight occ moderate later. Mainly fair. Good
Subject to weather ...
Departing North Fambridge 03:00UT towards Dover e.t.a. 14:30 UT (latest 21:30UT)
Alternate Ramsgate ETA 11:15UT (latest 18:00UT)
Saturday, 16 June 2018
Friday, 15 June 2018
One day to go then we're off!!!
Much cogitation about possible permutations of passage planning and microscopic perusal of weather charts has been the order of business for the last twenty four hours, along with changing the engine oil and trying to work out why the new second diesel tank isn't feeding fuel to the engine reliably (I think I've got that one worked out and it's a minor nuisance which I should be able to fix later today)
I shall top the boat up with fuel this morning, the crew arrive this evening, the final shop for fresh stuff (and a few things I forgot) will be done in the morning then we'll have a conflab about the initial plan. The conflab will potentially be needed for reasonds I shall expand on below ...
So what's the plan?
It's sailing to a schedule for the first week, inevitably. We're crew changing in St. Peter Port, Guernsey next Saturday afternoon so we need to be there by Saturday lunchtime at the absolute latest and preferably by Friday afternoon.
We have two basic options - day sail from port to port down to the West Solent and then cross over to either Cherbourg or Alderney or a night or two at sea and go straight through from wherever we decide to kick off from.
Tomorrow is easy. It would be a rush to get away early morning, and it would have to be early to make the best of the tide, with Tony and Rik both having been working today then travelling to the boat. So the plan for tomorow is to drop down to the Brankfleet late afternoon and anchor overnight.
If, as looks possible, it's going to be rather breezy overnight (the GFS forecast looks OK but the ECWMF based Meteo forecast, which I find generally pretty accurate, suggests F6 gusting 7 until the early hours which might be a bit bouncy for a good nights sleep) then we'll decide whether to stay put and depart very early from Fambridge or splash the cash on a night in Burnham Yacht Harbour.
Getting downriver to Burnham or the Brankfleet avoids a potential 3:00am start, or start later and miss the best of the tide, and if I've got to get up by 3:00am it's hardly worth going to bed!
Then Sunday I plan to be in Dover overnight. Cullins Yard beckons!
After that it all depends on the weather. At the moment, the forecast is suggesting F4, occasionally F5 or F3 with a lot of West in it until mid-week. If that holds it's going to mean beating down channel in which case we're likely to go for the coastal port hopping strategy.
Of course, typically, by late Wednesday into Thursday and Friday, the forecast predicts the wind going round into a North Easterly or Easterly flow. Ideal for sailing down the channel, not ideal for a night or two in Braye Harbour in Alderney which is what I'd planned.
Tempting though it is to wait for the weather, there's no guarantee that forecast will hold so unless it's blowing a yachtsman's gale, we get on with the job. And if it looks like Braye is going to be untenable, we'll either divert to Cherbourg or press on straight through to Guernsey and give it a miss.
I shall top the boat up with fuel this morning, the crew arrive this evening, the final shop for fresh stuff (and a few things I forgot) will be done in the morning then we'll have a conflab about the initial plan. The conflab will potentially be needed for reasonds I shall expand on below ...
So what's the plan?
It's sailing to a schedule for the first week, inevitably. We're crew changing in St. Peter Port, Guernsey next Saturday afternoon so we need to be there by Saturday lunchtime at the absolute latest and preferably by Friday afternoon.
We have two basic options - day sail from port to port down to the West Solent and then cross over to either Cherbourg or Alderney or a night or two at sea and go straight through from wherever we decide to kick off from.
Tomorrow is easy. It would be a rush to get away early morning, and it would have to be early to make the best of the tide, with Tony and Rik both having been working today then travelling to the boat. So the plan for tomorow is to drop down to the Brankfleet late afternoon and anchor overnight.
If, as looks possible, it's going to be rather breezy overnight (the GFS forecast looks OK but the ECWMF based Meteo forecast, which I find generally pretty accurate, suggests F6 gusting 7 until the early hours which might be a bit bouncy for a good nights sleep) then we'll decide whether to stay put and depart very early from Fambridge or splash the cash on a night in Burnham Yacht Harbour.
Getting downriver to Burnham or the Brankfleet avoids a potential 3:00am start, or start later and miss the best of the tide, and if I've got to get up by 3:00am it's hardly worth going to bed!
Then Sunday I plan to be in Dover overnight. Cullins Yard beckons!
After that it all depends on the weather. At the moment, the forecast is suggesting F4, occasionally F5 or F3 with a lot of West in it until mid-week. If that holds it's going to mean beating down channel in which case we're likely to go for the coastal port hopping strategy.
Of course, typically, by late Wednesday into Thursday and Friday, the forecast predicts the wind going round into a North Easterly or Easterly flow. Ideal for sailing down the channel, not ideal for a night or two in Braye Harbour in Alderney which is what I'd planned.
Tempting though it is to wait for the weather, there's no guarantee that forecast will hold so unless it's blowing a yachtsman's gale, we get on with the job. And if it looks like Braye is going to be untenable, we'll either divert to Cherbourg or press on straight through to Guernsey and give it a miss.
Friday, 8 June 2018
A quick catchup
I said catchup, not ketchup! Less of your sauce dear reader :) ...
Very little progress was made over the winter on the latest round of updates and improvements, for the reasons already mentioned.
However, at last I was able to crack on with some key jobs. The first, to keep the female crew members quite, was finally installing the hot water system I've had all the bits in storage for some considerable time, the only I hadn't had until now was the time!
Fitting the new hot water calorifier was a beast of a job. The only sensible option was to install it in the otherwise unusable space in the engine bay, space that was serving no useful purpose, but that meant squeezing it into a tight space whilst working in an equally tight space!
I'm fairly pleased with the end result though. A sturdy plywood shelf mounted on brackets at either end to the side bulkheads carries the calorifier on top and the water pump and accumulator tank underneath. In the end, it has hardly compromised the engine access at all and made no difference to accessing the sea cocks from the aft cabin.
Hot water is currently mains only but I hope to have the engine plumbing in place in the next couple of days which will give us a tank full of hot water after a couple of hours engine running.
Fitting the new taps was fun ... not but I got there in the end. The joy of having a shower on board cannot be overstated. Marina showers are all well and good but my grumble about them is that you have to get dried (as best you can) and dressed as soon as you step out from under the shower. That's not very relaxing!
I haven't actually managed to run the hot water out yet having a shower (I don't spend a long time in the shower anyway) but I reckon there's a good fifteen minutes or more "on tap". That's comfortably enough for two or three people to have a quick boat shower (wet down, turn off, soap up, turn on, rinse off!).
The major job that I wanted to complete before our upcoming Summer Cruise, was installing the additional diesel tank. As the first step of this job was, of neccessity, moving the water pump, it had to be second on the list.
With the pump in it's new location (where it is MUCH quieter by the way) the new tank could be fitted in the bottom of the locker. This also required a plywood shelf plus the addition of two tie down straps to keep it in place.
I'm part way through the plumbing of the new tank, delayed by the mysterious disappearance of the diesel pick up pipe which should be in our storage and isn't. I've got a replacement arriving on Monday, it was only a few beer tokens to simply order another one rather than muck about.
The second tank will double our diesel capacity from 88 litres to 176 litres which, of course, will double our range under power. We should now be able to run for getting on for 60 hours non-stop without refuelling.
I am though going to leave the two 20l jerry cans behind and reduce my spare fuel load to three 10l plastic cans. The jerry cans take up a lot of space and have a habit of leaking (I found a little puddle of diesel in the bottom of the locker which explains the complaints from the denizens of the aft cabin about a funny smell). It's also a pain to refuel from the jerry cans especially at sea.
Work came to a temporary halt mid-May when Jane and I had a fortnight on board. We decided to spend a few days away from our berth but return on the same springs in order to get on with sorting the boat out. We had a bit of sailing, a bit of motoring, two nights at anchor and back to base. Very pleasant it was too.
What wasn't so pleasant was the developing abcess that had me well out of sorts by the second week. So once again things got in the way of things that needed to be done. Oh well, anbtibiotics work wonders and hopefully it won't flare up again.
Jane had a hospital appointment which kept me up in Kettering until yesterday so now it's full steam ahead to get ready for our planned departure a week tomorrow (of which more anon)
Very little progress was made over the winter on the latest round of updates and improvements, for the reasons already mentioned.
However, at last I was able to crack on with some key jobs. The first, to keep the female crew members quite, was finally installing the hot water system I've had all the bits in storage for some considerable time, the only I hadn't had until now was the time!Fitting the new hot water calorifier was a beast of a job. The only sensible option was to install it in the otherwise unusable space in the engine bay, space that was serving no useful purpose, but that meant squeezing it into a tight space whilst working in an equally tight space!
I'm fairly pleased with the end result though. A sturdy plywood shelf mounted on brackets at either end to the side bulkheads carries the calorifier on top and the water pump and accumulator tank underneath. In the end, it has hardly compromised the engine access at all and made no difference to accessing the sea cocks from the aft cabin.
Hot water is currently mains only but I hope to have the engine plumbing in place in the next couple of days which will give us a tank full of hot water after a couple of hours engine running.
Fitting the new taps was fun ... not but I got there in the end. The joy of having a shower on board cannot be overstated. Marina showers are all well and good but my grumble about them is that you have to get dried (as best you can) and dressed as soon as you step out from under the shower. That's not very relaxing!
I haven't actually managed to run the hot water out yet having a shower (I don't spend a long time in the shower anyway) but I reckon there's a good fifteen minutes or more "on tap". That's comfortably enough for two or three people to have a quick boat shower (wet down, turn off, soap up, turn on, rinse off!).
The major job that I wanted to complete before our upcoming Summer Cruise, was installing the additional diesel tank. As the first step of this job was, of neccessity, moving the water pump, it had to be second on the list.With the pump in it's new location (where it is MUCH quieter by the way) the new tank could be fitted in the bottom of the locker. This also required a plywood shelf plus the addition of two tie down straps to keep it in place.
I'm part way through the plumbing of the new tank, delayed by the mysterious disappearance of the diesel pick up pipe which should be in our storage and isn't. I've got a replacement arriving on Monday, it was only a few beer tokens to simply order another one rather than muck about.
The second tank will double our diesel capacity from 88 litres to 176 litres which, of course, will double our range under power. We should now be able to run for getting on for 60 hours non-stop without refuelling.
I am though going to leave the two 20l jerry cans behind and reduce my spare fuel load to three 10l plastic cans. The jerry cans take up a lot of space and have a habit of leaking (I found a little puddle of diesel in the bottom of the locker which explains the complaints from the denizens of the aft cabin about a funny smell). It's also a pain to refuel from the jerry cans especially at sea.
Work came to a temporary halt mid-May when Jane and I had a fortnight on board. We decided to spend a few days away from our berth but return on the same springs in order to get on with sorting the boat out. We had a bit of sailing, a bit of motoring, two nights at anchor and back to base. Very pleasant it was too.
What wasn't so pleasant was the developing abcess that had me well out of sorts by the second week. So once again things got in the way of things that needed to be done. Oh well, anbtibiotics work wonders and hopefully it won't flare up again.
Jane had a hospital appointment which kept me up in Kettering until yesterday so now it's full steam ahead to get ready for our planned departure a week tomorrow (of which more anon)
Sunday, 7 January 2018
2017 - a year of ups and downs - and looking ahead
Last year was not a good year for the Peckett family. Never the less, there were positives and they were all sailing related.
Our first cruise of the year back in May was cut short following my father's heart attack. Jane and I still managed a few days out once it was clear he was in no danger, visiting Ipswich Haven for the first (and probably last) time.
Our summer cruise was the longest yet at four weeks. The upside of being self employed is being able to take more time to go sailing and the removal of that ticking clock in the back of my mind that "we must be back by a week Saturday".
The weather took it's toll on our plans but despite only getting as far West as Lymington and in spite of the rain and at times windy weather, we had a good time in the Solent.
Jane and I were out and about again in early September. Once again the weather interfered and hampered our plans but again we made the best of it and enjoyed a cruise up as far as Woodbridge and back.
Then things took a sharp turn for the worse on the home front with my Mum passing away and my Dad needing a lot of care and support to get through a very tough time. Just when we thought we were turning the corner, Dad ended up in hospital over New Year but happily he recovered.
I have neither the time nor the inclination at the moment to produce the usual detailed log for last season but we managed to cover 637 nautical miles all told. We had some very good sails but we also had some pretty diabolical days as well!
Business has not been good in 2017 and having to put everything boating and business to one side for nigh on three months hasn't helped. We'll see how things go now as we look forward to this coming year but we're anticipating being somewhat challenged financially so our plans for the season are necessarily cautious.
There's quite a long list of jobs I want to get done on Pagan before the start of the sailing season. The hot water system needs to be fitted, as does the second diesel tank. I want to get the cockpit lockers fitted out and there should be a new gas cooker to go in.
Oh yes, that gas cooker. We ordered it way back in September and it finally arrived in late October. However, it was just before Christmas before I could get down to the boat to install it. To my considerable annoyance, it was not only damaged when I took it out of the box, it was also not what we ordered (I believe it to be an older model that has snuck back into the supply chain however there's also the possibility that the manufacturers have changed the specification without telling the distributors. Either way, it's not acceptable). So it's gone back to be replaced. Still waiting.
The big trip this year is going to be to the Channel Islands in June / July. The outbound passage is going to be a full on "go for it" leg with only the very worst weather stopping us. I'm committed to getting to Guernsey by the end of that week unless it's absolutely impossible. I've got Tony on the crew and he's up for it, I'm hoping to add to that with one or two more crew who are up for some serious hard sailing.
The middle leg around the islands will be a repeat of last year in the Solent with myself, Jane and my cousin Maire on board. The waters around the Channel Islands are somewhat more challenging than the Solent so it should be more exciting and hopefully we'll get some good weather.
The return leg I plan to coast hop along the North French coast. I especially want to visit the D-Day landing beaches so I'm planning accordingly. I've got Mark to crew for me which is useful as he's flexible about when he gets back which gives us an extra few days.
The rest of the season, we're hoping to get quite a bit of local sailing in. Originally, we'd contemplated a second three or four week cruise perhaps to the Netherlands but anticipating the finances being tight we've cut that back to a fortnight in more local waters.
I'll try and catch up more on the blog as we get going which, hopefully, will be over the next few weeks.
Our first cruise of the year back in May was cut short following my father's heart attack. Jane and I still managed a few days out once it was clear he was in no danger, visiting Ipswich Haven for the first (and probably last) time.
Our summer cruise was the longest yet at four weeks. The upside of being self employed is being able to take more time to go sailing and the removal of that ticking clock in the back of my mind that "we must be back by a week Saturday".
The weather took it's toll on our plans but despite only getting as far West as Lymington and in spite of the rain and at times windy weather, we had a good time in the Solent.
Jane and I were out and about again in early September. Once again the weather interfered and hampered our plans but again we made the best of it and enjoyed a cruise up as far as Woodbridge and back.
Then things took a sharp turn for the worse on the home front with my Mum passing away and my Dad needing a lot of care and support to get through a very tough time. Just when we thought we were turning the corner, Dad ended up in hospital over New Year but happily he recovered.
I have neither the time nor the inclination at the moment to produce the usual detailed log for last season but we managed to cover 637 nautical miles all told. We had some very good sails but we also had some pretty diabolical days as well!
Business has not been good in 2017 and having to put everything boating and business to one side for nigh on three months hasn't helped. We'll see how things go now as we look forward to this coming year but we're anticipating being somewhat challenged financially so our plans for the season are necessarily cautious.
There's quite a long list of jobs I want to get done on Pagan before the start of the sailing season. The hot water system needs to be fitted, as does the second diesel tank. I want to get the cockpit lockers fitted out and there should be a new gas cooker to go in.
Oh yes, that gas cooker. We ordered it way back in September and it finally arrived in late October. However, it was just before Christmas before I could get down to the boat to install it. To my considerable annoyance, it was not only damaged when I took it out of the box, it was also not what we ordered (I believe it to be an older model that has snuck back into the supply chain however there's also the possibility that the manufacturers have changed the specification without telling the distributors. Either way, it's not acceptable). So it's gone back to be replaced. Still waiting.
The big trip this year is going to be to the Channel Islands in June / July. The outbound passage is going to be a full on "go for it" leg with only the very worst weather stopping us. I'm committed to getting to Guernsey by the end of that week unless it's absolutely impossible. I've got Tony on the crew and he's up for it, I'm hoping to add to that with one or two more crew who are up for some serious hard sailing.
The middle leg around the islands will be a repeat of last year in the Solent with myself, Jane and my cousin Maire on board. The waters around the Channel Islands are somewhat more challenging than the Solent so it should be more exciting and hopefully we'll get some good weather.
The return leg I plan to coast hop along the North French coast. I especially want to visit the D-Day landing beaches so I'm planning accordingly. I've got Mark to crew for me which is useful as he's flexible about when he gets back which gives us an extra few days.
The rest of the season, we're hoping to get quite a bit of local sailing in. Originally, we'd contemplated a second three or four week cruise perhaps to the Netherlands but anticipating the finances being tight we've cut that back to a fortnight in more local waters.
I'll try and catch up more on the blog as we get going which, hopefully, will be over the next few weeks.
Sunday, 10 September 2017
Autumn Cruise 2017 day 8 onwards
We left Levington yesterday morning expecting to motor back to the Crouch
As it turned out, we had the sails up as soon as we cleared the entrance channel and the engine off shortly thereafter
We had a fairly gentle sail to and through Harwich then the breeze picked up as we cleared the river and we settled down just nicely laying the course to clear the Naze close hauled
We held that course all the way to the Gunfleet, tacked back across to Clacton pier and then we were able to lay the course for the Spitway on the next tack!
Beating the length of the Wallet in three boards, outstanding!
We continued to beat down the channel into the Couch to the North of the Swallowtail but by the time we approached the end of the channel the tide had turned foul
Because I'd expected to be motoring, we hadn't left Levington as early as we should have and now we paid the price. It was fairly slow going under motor against a surprisingly stiff ebb tide
We'd all but made up our minds to anchor for the night in the Brankfleet as the wind had dropped from the F5 we'd had most of the day to a more gentle F3 and the sun was out
But as we approached the Branklet buoy that marks the entrance to the Roach, a very nasty black cloud with heavy rain below it was coming our way and ahead of it the wind blew up to F6 so we decided to can that idea and head into Burnham Yacht Harbour instead
By happy chance, that led to an encounter with our friends Neal and Joscelyn who were out charging the batteries on their Westerly Falcon. We arranged to meet up for beers later
Once alongside in the marina, which went quite smoothly (we're starting to get the hang of this lark!), I sorted out on deck whilst Jane heated up a quick meal of tinned beef stew
Then it was off to the pub for beers :)
Today, as forecast, the yachtsman's gale (an F7) has arrived and it's set to stay very breezy tomorrow. If conditions are not too bad we'll run up to Fambridge and try to get back on our berth tomorrow afternoon. Otherwise it'll be Tuesday.
Either way, this cruise is effectively at an end.
It's been very enjoyable and we've managed to get some good sailing in. I'm pleased that I feel I'm beginning to get Pagan sailing properly as I've been struggling at times. Practice makes perfect and whilst perfection is still a long way off we're getting there
As it turned out, we had the sails up as soon as we cleared the entrance channel and the engine off shortly thereafter
We had a fairly gentle sail to and through Harwich then the breeze picked up as we cleared the river and we settled down just nicely laying the course to clear the Naze close hauled
We held that course all the way to the Gunfleet, tacked back across to Clacton pier and then we were able to lay the course for the Spitway on the next tack!
Beating the length of the Wallet in three boards, outstanding!
We continued to beat down the channel into the Couch to the North of the Swallowtail but by the time we approached the end of the channel the tide had turned foul
Because I'd expected to be motoring, we hadn't left Levington as early as we should have and now we paid the price. It was fairly slow going under motor against a surprisingly stiff ebb tide
We'd all but made up our minds to anchor for the night in the Brankfleet as the wind had dropped from the F5 we'd had most of the day to a more gentle F3 and the sun was out
But as we approached the Branklet buoy that marks the entrance to the Roach, a very nasty black cloud with heavy rain below it was coming our way and ahead of it the wind blew up to F6 so we decided to can that idea and head into Burnham Yacht Harbour instead
By happy chance, that led to an encounter with our friends Neal and Joscelyn who were out charging the batteries on their Westerly Falcon. We arranged to meet up for beers later
Once alongside in the marina, which went quite smoothly (we're starting to get the hang of this lark!), I sorted out on deck whilst Jane heated up a quick meal of tinned beef stew
Then it was off to the pub for beers :)
Today, as forecast, the yachtsman's gale (an F7) has arrived and it's set to stay very breezy tomorrow. If conditions are not too bad we'll run up to Fambridge and try to get back on our berth tomorrow afternoon. Otherwise it'll be Tuesday.
Either way, this cruise is effectively at an end.
It's been very enjoyable and we've managed to get some good sailing in. I'm pleased that I feel I'm beginning to get Pagan sailing properly as I've been struggling at times. Practice makes perfect and whilst perfection is still a long way off we're getting there
Saturday, 9 September 2017
Autumn Cruise 2017 days 6 & 7
The importance of engine checks...
I confess, I've been less than religious about doing daily engine checks for a while. I decided at the start of this cruise to rectify that and it's a good job I did
The water was fine, the oil was OK and everything looked good until I checked the belts. And as you can see, the water pump drive belt was hanging on by the skin of its teeth
It might have lasted the day, it might not but I wasn't risking it so it was out with the spanners to replace it with the spare (good job we had a spare!)
With that sorted, we got ready and waited for enough tide to get over the cill out of the marina
There's not much to say about the run down to Harwich. It was, unavoidably, a foul tide all the way and, as forecast, F5 gusting 6 at times, bang on the nose
We cracked on under motor giving it some welly to keep the speed over the ground respectable. The Deben Bar wasn't as rough as I thought it might be and nor were the conditions particularly troublesome
We were, never the less, happy to get alongside in Suffolk Yacht Harbour.
With the conditions forecast for overnight and into yesterday, we decided to stay put for two nights and yesterday we had a lazy day on board. The decision to hole up was a good one as it rained virtually all day
The glass is falling and there's a gale forecast to arrive by tomorrow afternoon with strong winds continuing through Monday so we're heading back to the Crouch today
We're going to go hide in Burnham Yacht Harbour until Tuesday as it's unlikely we'd get on the inside of the pontoon back at Fambridge today and in any case we haven't had a night out as such this cruise so we've booked a table at our favourite eating establishment for Sunday evening
I confess, I've been less than religious about doing daily engine checks for a while. I decided at the start of this cruise to rectify that and it's a good job I did
The water was fine, the oil was OK and everything looked good until I checked the belts. And as you can see, the water pump drive belt was hanging on by the skin of its teeth
It might have lasted the day, it might not but I wasn't risking it so it was out with the spanners to replace it with the spare (good job we had a spare!)
With that sorted, we got ready and waited for enough tide to get over the cill out of the marina
There's not much to say about the run down to Harwich. It was, unavoidably, a foul tide all the way and, as forecast, F5 gusting 6 at times, bang on the nose
We cracked on under motor giving it some welly to keep the speed over the ground respectable. The Deben Bar wasn't as rough as I thought it might be and nor were the conditions particularly troublesome
We were, never the less, happy to get alongside in Suffolk Yacht Harbour.
With the conditions forecast for overnight and into yesterday, we decided to stay put for two nights and yesterday we had a lazy day on board. The decision to hole up was a good one as it rained virtually all day
The glass is falling and there's a gale forecast to arrive by tomorrow afternoon with strong winds continuing through Monday so we're heading back to the Crouch today
We're going to go hide in Burnham Yacht Harbour until Tuesday as it's unlikely we'd get on the inside of the pontoon back at Fambridge today and in any case we haven't had a night out as such this cruise so we've booked a table at our favourite eating establishment for Sunday evening
Thursday, 7 September 2017
Trying to figure out a cunning plan ...
Inshore Waters Forecast to 12 miles offshore
for the period 0600 UTC Thursday 7 September to 0600 UTC Friday 8 September 2017
General situation
A new area of low pressure will track northeastwards between Iceland and Scotland, bringing with it strong winds, rain and showers to all areas over the next 48 hours.
Gibraltar Point to North Foreland - Strong winds are forecast
24 hour forecast: Westerly 3 or 4, backing southwesterly 4 or 5, increasing 6 at times later. Smooth or slight, becoming moderate later. Rain or showers later. Good, occasionally poor later.
Outlook for the following 24 hours: Southwesterly, veering westerly later, 4 or 5, occasionally 6 at first, then becoming variable 3 for a time in north. Moderate, becoming slight. Rain or showers. Moderate or good, occasionally poor.
On the basis of the inshore waters forecast, today and tomorrow, whilst brisk, are in definite "go" territory with the caveat that we probably want to be somewhere well sheltered overnight tonight.
Unusually, MeteoConsult's forecast is slightly worse than the Met Office forecast. The GFS forecast is better! Meteoconsult are predicting SW F6 gusting F7 overnight until around 09:00 to 10:00 tomorrow morning. The GFS is predicting Westerly F4 through the same period
Looking ahead, Meteoconsult (my favoured forecasting service) is still predicting a fresh gale on Sunday evening and a moderate gale on Monday but the GFS disagrees forecasting more of the same F4 / F5 Sou'westerly or Westerly conditions we've been getting all week
We still have 6 days of this cruise to go and I'm left with a bit of a dilemma. If Sunday / Monday is as Meteoconsult forecast, we realistically need to head back to the Crouch by Saturday evening, curtailing this trip. If the GFS is right, we don't need to head back until Monday / Tuesday.
Either way, our only option for today is to get out of the Deben this afternoon (we can't get out of Tidemill Yacht Harbour until about an hour and a half before high water and we need to get over the Deben Bar as soon after high water as we can manage) and position ourselves somewhere sheltered for the night.
I would have opted to anchor in Hamford Water tonight but I'm not sure that would be the smartest move. F6 plus from the Sou'west is likely to make for an uncomfortable night. Ha'penny Pier is likely to be a bit bouncy too. So it looks like it's going to have to be one of the Orwell marinas (to my slight irritation as I wanted to avoid marinas as much as possible on this cruise and it ain't working out!). After due consideration we're going to head for Suffolk Yacht Harbour at Levington on the basis that it's nicely sheltered and it's somewhere Jane hasn't been before
Then we'll think about options for Friday onwards this evening
So the passage plan for today is ..
HW Deben Bar 12:11UT
Dep Woodbridge approx 11:30UT towards SYH Levington eta 16:00UT
Note: Make best speed eta Deben Bar (eta app. 1hr after HW)
for the period 0600 UTC Thursday 7 September to 0600 UTC Friday 8 September 2017
General situation
A new area of low pressure will track northeastwards between Iceland and Scotland, bringing with it strong winds, rain and showers to all areas over the next 48 hours.
Gibraltar Point to North Foreland - Strong winds are forecast
24 hour forecast: Westerly 3 or 4, backing southwesterly 4 or 5, increasing 6 at times later. Smooth or slight, becoming moderate later. Rain or showers later. Good, occasionally poor later.
Outlook for the following 24 hours: Southwesterly, veering westerly later, 4 or 5, occasionally 6 at first, then becoming variable 3 for a time in north. Moderate, becoming slight. Rain or showers. Moderate or good, occasionally poor.
On the basis of the inshore waters forecast, today and tomorrow, whilst brisk, are in definite "go" territory with the caveat that we probably want to be somewhere well sheltered overnight tonight.
Unusually, MeteoConsult's forecast is slightly worse than the Met Office forecast. The GFS forecast is better! Meteoconsult are predicting SW F6 gusting F7 overnight until around 09:00 to 10:00 tomorrow morning. The GFS is predicting Westerly F4 through the same period
Looking ahead, Meteoconsult (my favoured forecasting service) is still predicting a fresh gale on Sunday evening and a moderate gale on Monday but the GFS disagrees forecasting more of the same F4 / F5 Sou'westerly or Westerly conditions we've been getting all week
We still have 6 days of this cruise to go and I'm left with a bit of a dilemma. If Sunday / Monday is as Meteoconsult forecast, we realistically need to head back to the Crouch by Saturday evening, curtailing this trip. If the GFS is right, we don't need to head back until Monday / Tuesday.
Either way, our only option for today is to get out of the Deben this afternoon (we can't get out of Tidemill Yacht Harbour until about an hour and a half before high water and we need to get over the Deben Bar as soon after high water as we can manage) and position ourselves somewhere sheltered for the night.
I would have opted to anchor in Hamford Water tonight but I'm not sure that would be the smartest move. F6 plus from the Sou'west is likely to make for an uncomfortable night. Ha'penny Pier is likely to be a bit bouncy too. So it looks like it's going to have to be one of the Orwell marinas (to my slight irritation as I wanted to avoid marinas as much as possible on this cruise and it ain't working out!). After due consideration we're going to head for Suffolk Yacht Harbour at Levington on the basis that it's nicely sheltered and it's somewhere Jane hasn't been before
Then we'll think about options for Friday onwards this evening
So the passage plan for today is ..
HW Deben Bar 12:11UT
Dep Woodbridge approx 11:30UT towards SYH Levington eta 16:00UT
Note: Make best speed eta Deben Bar (eta app. 1hr after HW)