One day to go then we're off!!!

Much cogitation about possible permutations of passage planning and microscopic perusal of weather charts has been the order of business for the last twenty four hours, along with changing the engine oil and trying to work out why the new second diesel tank isn't feeding fuel to the engine reliably (I think I've got that one worked out and it's a minor nuisance which I should be able to fix later today)

I shall top the boat up with fuel this morning, the crew arrive this evening, the final shop for fresh stuff (and a few things I forgot) will be done in the morning then we'll have a conflab about the initial plan. The conflab will potentially be needed for reasonds I shall expand on below ...

So what's the plan?

It's sailing to a schedule for the first week, inevitably. We're crew changing in St. Peter Port, Guernsey next Saturday afternoon so we need to be there by Saturday lunchtime at the absolute latest and preferably by Friday afternoon.

We have two basic options - day sail from port to port down to the West Solent and then cross over to either Cherbourg or Alderney or a night or two at sea and go straight through from wherever we decide to kick off from.

Tomorrow is easy. It would be a rush to get away early morning, and it would have to be early to make the best of the tide, with Tony and Rik both having been working today then travelling to the boat. So the plan for tomorow is to drop down to the Brankfleet late afternoon and anchor overnight.

If, as looks possible, it's going to be rather breezy overnight (the GFS forecast looks OK but the ECWMF based Meteo forecast, which I find generally pretty accurate, suggests F6 gusting 7 until the early hours which might be a bit bouncy for a good nights sleep) then we'll decide whether to stay put and depart very early from Fambridge or splash the cash on a night in Burnham Yacht Harbour.

Getting downriver to Burnham or the Brankfleet avoids a potential 3:00am start, or start later and miss the best of the tide, and if I've got to get up by 3:00am it's hardly worth going to bed!

Then Sunday I plan to be in Dover overnight. Cullins Yard beckons!

After that it all depends on the weather. At the moment, the forecast is suggesting F4, occasionally F5 or F3 with a lot of West in it until mid-week. If that holds it's going to mean beating down channel in which case we're likely to go for the coastal port hopping strategy.

Of course, typically, by late Wednesday into Thursday and Friday, the forecast predicts the wind going round into a North Easterly or Easterly flow. Ideal for sailing down the channel, not ideal for a night or two in Braye Harbour in Alderney which is what I'd planned.

Tempting though it is to wait for the weather, there's no guarantee that forecast will hold so unless it's blowing a yachtsman's gale, we get on with the job. And if it looks like Braye is going to be untenable, we'll either divert to Cherbourg or press on straight through to Guernsey and give it a miss.